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LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $568.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $715.1KEvent: LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets57Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:135 trades$261.2K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $20.8K·6 wallets(2🐋)·$36.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTop Esports (NO)$29.3K@ 54¢·StasPanda

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$45.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$45.2K
6h
−$176.2K
tracked
$261.2K

6 verified profitable wallets: −$20.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: -29.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between JD Gaming and Top Esports in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against Top Esports. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against JD Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $168.0K gross
hurrican2 linked markets · $29.2K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $19.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Top Esports@ 30.0¢59m ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Top Esports@ 56.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -25.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Top Esports@ 56.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.0pp1h INVALIDATED -25.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Top Esports@ 54.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 7.8pp · near-book depth $12 → $28 · 22s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$45.2K
6h−$176.2K
24h−$168.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h61.4¢▲ above by 38.5pp
VWAP 7d61.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$46.3K
90¢
$3.2K
85¢
$1.7K
80¢
$20
75¢
$100
70¢
$59.1K
65¢
$1.8K
60¢
$1.3K
55¢
$5
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$117.5K
40¢
$22.2K
35¢
$5.9K
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLJD Gaming (YES)$18.1K@ 99.9¢
dad1681680x2383…072f
🐋—21 minutes ago
SELLJD Gaming (YES)$10.0K@ 99.9¢
yishiwucheng0x3308…f04b
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYTop Esports (NO)$28.6K@ 30.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTop Esports (NO)$10.0K@ 57.4¢
lzh10x282f…7c4e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTop Esports (NO)$26.2K@ 55.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTop Esports (NO)$29.3K@ 54.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$970.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$205.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs
18.5¢$2.8Mpriority90Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner
52.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner
54.5¢$939.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner
46.5¢$901.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$808.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
51.5¢$755.4Kpriority90Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StasPandaTop Esports$29.3K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
0xe907…cff6Top Esports$28.6K
BUY VWAP 30.0¢·3 fills
Lakersfan111Top Esports$26.2K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
vtcchampion52Top Esports$10.7K
BUY VWAP 32.2¢·2 fills
lzh1Top Esports$10.0K
BUY VWAP 57.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.