LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

● quote 11 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $685.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $339.9KEvent: LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:105 trades$134.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 16 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKiwoom DRX (NO)$19.4K@ 43¢·TAIWANNUMBERONE

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$12.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$12.4K
6h
+$5.8K
tracked
$134.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$14 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -42.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 11 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and Kiwoom DRX in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win the match against Kiwoom DRX. This market will resolve to "Kiwoom DRX" if Kiwoom DRX win the match against Nongshim Red Force. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
2543217582 linked markets · $164.8K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $68.0K gross
ChonkyChocolateCake2 linked markets · $43.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Kiwoom DRX@ 43.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -22.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $52$19 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$12.4K
6h+$5.8K
24h+$9.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h80.3¢▲ above by 19.6pp
VWAP 7d80.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$64.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$2
80¢
$4.1K
75¢
$1.9K
70¢
$11.5K
65¢
$675
60¢
$164
55¢
$51.3K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$11.9K@ 99.8¢0xda6a…5b40🐋33 minutes ago
SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$15.3K@ 99.9¢
RoshanMVP0xa16a…33a1
🐋34 minutes ago
BUYKiwoom DRX (NO)$19.4K@ 43.0¢
TAIWANNUMBERONE0xe015…6ffd
🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

TAIWANNUMBERONEKiwoom DRX$19.4K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
RoshanMVPNongshim Red Force$14.9K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·4 fills
0xda6a…5b40Nongshim Red Force$11.9K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·1 fill
0x870f…6da1Kiwoom DRX$11.5K
BUY VWAP 27.2¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.