Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

● quote just now

Politics→Culture→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $13.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $85.6KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets August 18 - August 25, 2026?

0.5¢

YES

99.5¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly77Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:34 trades$8.8K trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $122 net·3 wallets·$126 gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$3.4K@ 96¢·anon.1980.123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$199

−$2.1K

tracked

$8.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $122 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
•Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-25 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 18 12:00 PM ET to August 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Boss77 linked markets · $61.7K gross

ElonSpam3 linked markets · $49.7K gross

Prexpect4 linked markets · $33.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $199

6hNO · $2.1K

24hNO · $8.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.5¢

VWAP 24h2.6¢▼ below by 2.1pp

VWAP 7d2.6¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

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50¢

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← now

$8.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.