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Spread: AZ (-1.5)

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $130.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $121.8KEvent: AZ vs. Go Ahead Eagles - More Markets
100.0¢
AZ
0.1¢
Go Ahead Eagles
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets11Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:32 trades$49.1K trackedsource coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 166 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Go Ahead Eagles · $5.2K net·4 wallets·$47.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGo Ahead Eagles$9.2K@ 48¢·dv-pm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$7.6K
tracked
$49.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: Go Ahead Eagles · $5.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 166 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-29 16:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://eredivisie.nl/competitie/speelschema
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "AZ" if AZ win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Go Ahead Eagles".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Eredivisie game, scheduled for August 29 at 12:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "AZ" if AZ win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Go Ahead Eagles". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on eredivisie.nl. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor AZ; negative values favor Go Ahead Eagles. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAZ · $0
6hGo Ahead Eagles · $7.6K
24hGo Ahead Eagles · $4.2K

AZ price VWAP

Volume-weighted AZ price. Go Ahead Eagles fills are converted to the complementary AZ probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h50.8¢▲ above by 49.2pp
VWAP 7d50.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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AZ price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$36.7K
45¢
$12.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

plonker2026AZ$21.3K
BUY VWAP 50.3¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.