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LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $265.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $337.2KEvent: LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
79.5¢
Natus Vincere
20.5¢
GIANTX
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets24Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:66 trades$129.4K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:GIANTX · $13.1K net·8 wallets(2🐋)·$53.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGIANTX$15.1K@ 43¢·StasPanda

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $10.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.9K
6h
−$55.9K
tracked
$129.4K

8 verified profitable wallets: GIANTX · $13.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 51

Since latest large flow: -22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-29 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against GIANTX.

•This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win the match against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Natus Vincere and GIANTX in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 1:15 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against GIANTX. This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 29, 2026 at 1:15 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
sulumos2 linked markets · $28.7K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $19.3K gross
SineNooneEI2 linked markets · $18.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY GIANTX@ 43.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor GIANTX. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $10.9K
6hGIANTX · $55.9K
24hGIANTX · $41.9K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. GIANTX fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current79.5¢
VWAP 24h57.7¢▲ above by 21.8pp
VWAP 7d57.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$1.7K
70¢
$349
65¢
$6.9K
60¢
$0
55¢
$120.8K
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYGIANTX$15.0K@ 43.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYGIANTX$14.6K@ 43.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYGIANTX$15.1K@ 43.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNatus Vincere$10.2K@ 57.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StasPandaGIANTX$29.6K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·2 fills
BrotherObamaGIANTX$15.0K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
matanovikGIANTX$10.7K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·4 fills
SineNooneEINatus Vincere$10.2K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.