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Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?

● quote 1501 min ago
Politics→Culture→LegalCloses: 2 monthsLiquidity: $119.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $7.9KEvent: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?
3.1¢
YES
96.9¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$1 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1437 min agoofficial metadata 727 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $6.6K net·3 wallets·$6.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$6.5K@ 94¢·pmtosat-

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$1

3 verified profitable wallets: YES · $6.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Executable quote is 1501 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1437 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://media.wbur.org/wp/2023/09/clancy-indictment.pdf
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lindsay Clancy is convicted of at least one murder charge in the ongoing Commonwealth v. Lindsay Clancy case by either the specified date, 11:59 PM ET or, in the event of a mistrial, by the end of any retrial that begins before that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•If this case ends due to a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, or results in a verdict of Not Guilty for all murder charges (including by reason of lack of criminal responsibility due to mental illness), this market will resolve to "No". A plea agreement will qualify to resolve this market "Yes" only if it results in a judgment of conviction for murder.

Read full resolution rules

Lindsay Clancy has been charged by The Commonwealth of Massachusetts with three counts of murder for the death of her three children. You can read more about that here: https://media.wbur.org/wp/2023/09/clancy-indictment.pdf. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lindsay Clancy is convicted of at least one murder charge in the ongoing Commonwealth v. Lindsay Clancy case by either the specified date, 11:59 PM ET or, in the event of a mistrial, by the end of any retrial that begins before that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, or results in a verdict of Not Guilty for all murder charges (including by reason of lack of criminal responsibility due to mental illness), this market will resolve to "No". A plea agreement will qualify to resolve this market "Yes" only if it results in a judgment of conviction for murder. If all murder charges against Clancy are dropped, or otherwise changed such that they are no longer considered murder, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 29d ago
RULES CHANGED · 49d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.8¢48d ago
15m STALLED -0.6pp1h STALLED -1.2pp6h STALLED -1.7pp24h STALLED -1.4pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 92.7¢49d ago
15m STALLED -0.6pp1h STALLED -0.6pp6h STALLED -0.3pp24h STALLED +2.5pp
MARKET STATE49d ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPSELL NO@ 89.2¢49d ago
15m STALLED -2.7pp1h STALLED -2.7pp6h INVALIDATED -3.7pp24h INVALIDATED -6.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $1

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.1¢
VWAP 24h2.9¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d2.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$7.8K
0¢
← now
$15.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$38.7K@ 94.8¢
Kevindoto0xcd71…d127
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$13.0K@ 92.6¢
aff30xe52c…6924
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$20.9K@ 92.0¢
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$14.2K@ 93.5¢0xcaf1…9ad1🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.