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Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris

Politics→Settlement: Sebastian BaezLiquidity: $849.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $181.1KEvent: Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris
100.0¢
Sebastian Baez payout
0.0¢
Lloyd Harris payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Sebastian Baez · $6.7K net·4 wallets·$10.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSebastian Baez$19.4K@ 84¢·HVAB

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Sebastian Baez. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-30 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Lloyd Harris in the Cancun, originally scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Lloyd Harris. This market will resolve to 'Lloyd Harris' if Lloyd Harris advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Sebastian Baez@ 86.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sebastian Baez; negative values favor Lloyd Harris. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLloyd Harris · $7.0K
6hSebastian Baez · $32.5K
24hSebastian Baez · $35.9K

Sebastian Baez price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sebastian Baez price. Lloyd Harris fills are converted to the complementary Sebastian Baez probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h81.9¢▲ above by 18.1pp
VWAP 7d81.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sebastian Baez price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.6K
90¢
$2
85¢
$38.3K
80¢
$27.0K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$6.0K
55¢
$3.5K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSebastian Baez$19.4K@ 84.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HVABSebastian Baez$19.4K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·1 fill
IlgatoSebastian Baez$13.4K
BUY VWAP 86.3¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.