Bitcoin Up or Down on August 25?

● quote just now

Crypto→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $37.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $176.5KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on August 25?

48.0¢

52.0¢

Down

2.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets29Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution74Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:57 trades$32.0K trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Up · $5.5K net·2 wallets·$12.6K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUp$5.1K@ 84¢·Zzzz87

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP

What the tape says

Up pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

+$1.2K

−$3.3K

tracked

$32.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: Up · $5.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 80% · priority 46

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Up or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-25 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 25 '26 12:00 ET candle.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 25 '26 12:00 ET candle.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Latest book event: Down UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $4.4K → $5.1K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hUp · $1.2K

6hDown · $3.3K

24hUp · $10.1K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current48.0¢

VWAP 24h68.6¢▼ below by 20.6pp

VWAP 7d68.6¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

$1.7K

80¢

$7.6K

75¢

$5.4K

70¢

$1.2K

65¢

$1.1K

60¢

$5.5K

55¢

$3.6K

50¢

$2.6K

45¢

← now

$1.3K

40¢

$2.0K

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.