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US Open, Qualification ATP: Alex Bolt vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

● quote 6 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $364.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $305.0KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Alex Bolt vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz
0.1¢
Alex Bolt
99.9¢
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$116.7K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pablo Llamas Ruiz · $4.1K net·4 wallets·$8.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Bolt$31.3K@ 35¢·11vsldfdsgfkjgos

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Alex Bolt pressure: $17.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$17.3K
6h
+$37.2K
tracked
$116.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: Pablo Llamas Ruiz · $4.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +63.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 63.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex Bolt or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Bolt and Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Bolt' if Alex Bolt advances against Pablo Llamas Ruiz. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas Ruiz' if Pablo Llamas Ruiz advances against Alex Bolt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Bolt@ 37.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -23.0pp
Latest book event: Alex Bolt DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $25.6K → $384 · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Bolt; negative values favor Pablo Llamas Ruiz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Bolt · $17.3K
6hAlex Bolt · $37.2K
24hAlex Bolt · $40.0K

Alex Bolt price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Bolt price. Pablo Llamas Ruiz fills are converted to the complementary Alex Bolt probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h26.4¢▼ below by 26.3pp
VWAP 7d26.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Bolt price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.2K
35¢
$41.8K
30¢
$23.5K
25¢
$20.1K
20¢
$2.7K
15¢
$10.9K
10¢
$1.1K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$18.0K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLPablo Llamas Ruiz$15.9K@ 99.9¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—9 minutes ago
BUYAlex Bolt$31.3K@ 35.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPablo Llamas Ruiz$11.3K@ 71.0¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

11vsldfdsgfkjgosAlex Bolt$48.5K
BUY VWAP 34.8¢·4 fills
0x0cdf…ec9ePablo Llamas Ruiz$11.3K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.