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Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $351.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac
65.5¢
Mees Rottgering
34.5¢
Tomas Machac
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets79Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:161 trades$680.5K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 44s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mees Rottgering · $226.3K net·12 wallets(3🐋)·$288.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMees Rottgering$119.0K@ 72¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Tomas Machac pressure: $11.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$11.6K
6h
+$223.3K
tracked
$680.5K

12 verified profitable wallets: Mees Rottgering · $226.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 89% · priority 63

Since latest accumulation: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tomas Machac or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mees Rottgering and Tomas Machac in the Winston-Salem Open, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mees Rottgering' if Mees Rottgering advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Mees Rottgering. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Mees Rottgering23m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Mees Rottgering23m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Mees Rottgering@ 68.0¢26m ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Mees Rottgering@ 68.0¢26m ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp
Latest book event: Mees Rottgering UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $59.0K → $32.1K · 19s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mees Rottgering; negative values favor Tomas Machac. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Machac · $11.6K
6hMees Rottgering · $223.3K
24hMees Rottgering · $223.3K

Mees Rottgering price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mees Rottgering price. Tomas Machac fills are converted to the complementary Mees Rottgering probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.5¢
VWAP 24h62.8¢▲ above by 2.7pp
VWAP 7d62.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mees Rottgering price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.1K
75¢
$126.7K
70¢
$174.4K
65¢
← now
$79.0K
60¢
$49.4K
55¢
$53.6K
50¢
$41.8K
45¢
$73.9K
40¢
$43.4K
35¢
$7.1K
30¢
$30.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMees Rottgering$14.8K@ 67.1¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYMees Rottgering$119.0K@ 72.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYMees Rottgering$19.6K@ 72.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—28 minutes ago
SELLMees Rottgering$23.7K@ 69.1¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—30 minutes ago
SELLMees Rottgering$17.1K@ 75.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—35 minutes ago
SELLMees Rottgering$18.7K@ 77.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—36 minutes ago
SELLMees Rottgering$14.0K@ 77.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—37 minutes ago
SELLMees Rottgering$23.9K@ 75.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—39 minutes ago
SELLMees Rottgering$31.5K@ 77.3¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—39 minutes ago
SELLMees Rottgering$15.9K@ 72.9¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMees Rottgering$20.4K@ 66.5¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMees Rottgering$23.2K@ 62.7¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMees Rottgering$20.8K@ 55.6¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMees Rottgering$24.3K@ 53.6¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMees Rottgering$10.8K@ 52.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMees Rottgering$14.1K@ 44.4¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMees Rottgering$13.7K@ 46.5¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMees Rottgering$21.7K@ 47.6¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMees Rottgering$25.2K@ 33.9¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

11vsldfdsgfkjgosMees Rottgering$173.0K
BUY VWAP 46.3¢·15 fills
0x2c33…0563Mees Rottgering$156.9K
BUY VWAP 62.8¢·7 fills
0xe30e…6b87Mees Rottgering$56.7K
BUY VWAP 64.3¢·4 fills
swisstonyMees Rottgering$26.5K
BUY VWAP 71.4¢·6 fills
0x076d…8d4cTomas Machac$12.3K
BUY VWAP 43.5¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.