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Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $144.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $67.3KEvent: LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
9.0¢
Team Liquid
99.9¢
Shopify Rebellion
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$31.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 120 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Liquid$20.7K@ 68¢·bloodmaster

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$24.2K
tracked
$31.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Shopify Rebellion · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 120 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid wins 2 or more games than Shopify Rebellion in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Team Liquid and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid wins 2 or more games than Shopify Rebellion in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 29, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
bloodmaster4 linked markets · $141.0K gross
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $54.0K gross
Sisyphus.2 linked markets · $26.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Team Liquid DOWN 10.0pp · near-book depth $2 → $3 · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Liquid; negative values favor Shopify Rebellion. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Liquid · $0
6hTeam Liquid · $24.2K
24hTeam Liquid · $25.7K

Team Liquid price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Liquid price. Shopify Rebellion fills are converted to the complementary Team Liquid probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current9.0¢
VWAP 24h62.2¢▼ below by 53.2pp
VWAP 7d62.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Liquid price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$73
65¢
$29.8K
60¢
$203
55¢
$0
50¢
$3
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$85
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$1
0¢
$2.6K

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTeam Liquid$20.7K@ 68.0¢
bloodmaster0x58f8…dc70
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bloodmasterTeam Liquid$22.7K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.