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Broncos vs. 49ers

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $2.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $464.2KEvent: Broncos vs. 49ers
40.5¢
Broncos
59.5¢
49ers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$248.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:49ers · $215.8K net·8 wallets(2🐋)·$215.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY49ers$178.4K@ 58¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Broncos SETUP
What the tape says

Broncos pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.0K
6h
−$187.7K
tracked
$248.7K

8 verified profitable wallets: 49ers · $215.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 68

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Broncos or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos".

•If 49ers wins, the market will resolve to "49ers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 4:25PM ET: If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If 49ers wins, the market will resolve to "49ers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp2 linked markets · $311.3K gross
lalalalalalallalalalala2 linked markets · $248.2K gross
mooseborzoii4 linked markets · $190.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY 49ers@ 60.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY 49ers@ 59.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Broncos; negative values favor 49ers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBroncos · $2.0K
6h49ers · $187.7K
24h49ers · $196.9K

Broncos price VWAP

Volume-weighted Broncos price. 49ers fills are converted to the complementary Broncos probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h41.7¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d41.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Broncos price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$268.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBroncos$20.9K@ 41.0¢
btmx60x7469…a5f0
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUY49ers$178.4K@ 58.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUY49ers$14.7K@ 57.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—1 day ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: 49ers (-2.5)
53.5¢$866.8Kpriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5
50.5¢$499.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5
53.5¢$261.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
44.5¢$194.5Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-1.5)
56.5¢$8.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
87.5¢$1.6Mpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs
39.5¢$1.2Mpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Germany win on 2026-10-04?
54.5¢$644.0Kpriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-Temp49ers$179.7K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·2 fills
btmx6Broncos$20.9K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·1 fill
texaskid49ers$14.7K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.