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Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage

● quote 28s ago
Sports→Closes: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $298.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $191.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
72.5¢
Vitality
27.5¢
Natus Vincere
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets77Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:67 trades$57.8K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $31.3K net·3 wallets·$40.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLVitality$7.4K@ 73¢·galaktika123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $3.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.5K
6h
−$22.5K
tracked
$57.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $31.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 22:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Vitality.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Vitality and Natus Vincere in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Vitality. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 4, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x29b5…cc6c2 linked markets · $54.9K gross
0x8e1f…67ca2 linked markets · $8 gross
0x6fec…d1a72 linked markets · $6 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 26.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vitality; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $3.5K
6hNatus Vincere · $22.5K
24hNatus Vincere · $36.1K

Vitality price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vitality price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Vitality probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current72.5¢
VWAP 24h73.8¢▼ below by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d73.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vitality price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$7.1K
70¢
← now
$50.7K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cNatus Vincere$32.0K
BUY VWAP 26.4¢·16 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.