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Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $389.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $499.2KEvent: Broncos vs. 49ers
50.5¢
Over
49.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$245.2K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 110 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $20.2K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$20.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$144.4K@ 50¢·lalalalalalallalalalala

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$199.3K
tracked
$245.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: Under · $20.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 110 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Broncos and 49ers combine to score 49 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 49, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Broncos and 49ers combine to score 49 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 49, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp2 linked markets · $311.3K gross
lalalalalalallalalalala2 linked markets · $248.2K gross
mooseborzoii4 linked markets · $190.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hOver · $199.3K
24hOver · $202.8K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h49.9¢▲ above by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d49.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$230.4K
45¢
$52.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$11.0K@ 50.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOver$144.4K@ 50.0¢
lalalalalalallalalalala0xe178…fe19
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOver$75.0K@ 50.0¢
lalalalalalallalalalala0xe178…fe19
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOver$12.0K@ 48.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—1 day ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: 49ers (-2.5)
54.5¢$876.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Broncos vs. 49ers
40.5¢$474.1Kpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5
53.5¢$262.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
44.5¢$188.3Kpriority42Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-1.5)
56.5¢$8.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
74.5¢$2.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs
18.5¢$1.3Mpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
52.5¢$946.4Kpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lalalalalalallalalalalaOver$219.4K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·2 fills
mooseborzoiUnder$12.5K
BUY VWAP 51.2¢·3 fills
quavooOver$12.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
maz26Under$11.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.