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San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $527.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $123.4KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
58.5¢
San Diego Padres
41.5¢
Cincinnati Reds
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection43Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$56.9K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 36s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cincinnati Reds · $26.5K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$26.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$25.8K@ 58¢·justwins

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

San Diego Padres pressure: $24.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$24.5K
6h
+$770
tracked
$56.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: Cincinnati Reds · $26.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from San Diego Padres or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-07 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 31 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $54.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 59.0¢23m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Cincinnati Reds@ 42.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor San Diego Padres; negative values favor Cincinnati Reds. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSan Diego Padres · $24.5K
6hSan Diego Padres · $770
24hSan Diego Padres · $3.8K

San Diego Padres price VWAP

Volume-weighted San Diego Padres price. Cincinnati Reds fills are converted to the complementary San Diego Padres probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h58.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d58.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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San Diego Padres price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$56.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres$25.8K@ 58.0¢
justwins0xa2cc…0cbc
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYCincinnati Reds$25.2K@ 42.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

justwinsSan Diego Padres$25.8K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingCincinnati Reds$25.2K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.