PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $198.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $854.7KEvent: US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz
4.5¢
Roman Safiullin
95.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets94Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority75Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 91%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:149 trades$447.4K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 64%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $247.5K net·16 wallets(3🐋)·$263.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$63.8K@ 88¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Carlos Alcaraz SETUP
What the tape says

Carlos Alcaraz pressure: $132.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$132.7K
6h
−$298.8K
tracked
$447.4K

16 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $247.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 91% · priority 75

Since latest accumulation: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carlos Alcaraz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Roman Safiullin and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Roman Safiullin' if Roman Safiullin advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Roman Safiullin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 96.0¢11m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 96.0¢11m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 90.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 82.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Roman Safiullin; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $132.7K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $298.8K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $363.5K

Roman Safiullin price VWAP

Volume-weighted Roman Safiullin price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Roman Safiullin probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.5¢
VWAP 24h14.0¢▼ below by 9.5pp
VWAP 7d14.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Roman Safiullin price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$25
20¢
$136.9K
15¢
$98.1K
10¢
$108.0K
5¢
$78.3K
0¢
← now
$32.3K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$32.3K@ 96.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$29.4K@ 95.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$21.4K@ 95.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$24.2K@ 95.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$13.6K@ 86.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$63.8K@ 88.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$25.2K@ 80.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$15.2K@ 84.0¢0x1b34…c6ef🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$29.3K@ 81.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$18.3K@ 80.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$16.0K@ 80.0¢
chanello0xf3a6…71bd
🐋—about 17 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev
0.1¢$2.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B
29.5¢$1.2Mpriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Jacob Fearnley
73.5¢$674.0Kpriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$672.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-31?
89.5¢$611.4Kpriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner
32.5¢$555.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
93.5¢$467.2Kpriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Rei Sakamoto
11.0¢$457.3Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Carlos Alcaraz$115.4K
BUY VWAP 94.1¢·6 fills
0x1610…ae49Carlos Alcaraz$69.9K
BUY VWAP 87.3¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Carlos Alcaraz$49.8K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·3 fills
PainfulvoidCarlos Alcaraz$36.5K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·4 fills
chanelloCarlos Alcaraz$23.4K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·4 fills
FlaznorpCarlos Alcaraz$22.8K
BUY VWAP 83.4¢·7 fills
0x1b34…c6efCarlos Alcaraz$15.2K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.