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Spread: Packers (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 44 minutesLiquidity: $29.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $251.0KEvent: Packers vs. Buccaneers
74.5¢
Packers
25.5¢
Buccaneers
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection48Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%
24h sample:21 trades$113.9K tracked29% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBuccaneers$19.2K@ 48¢·0xbc43…96d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Packers pressure: $54.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$54.5K
6h
+$35.7K
tracked
$113.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +23.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 23.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Packers or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
chubbytoro2 linked markets · $101.9K gross
quavoo4 linked markets · $101.3K gross
0xbc43…96d33 linked markets · $70.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Packers26m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Packers26m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Packers@ 53.0¢52m ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Packers@ 53.0¢52m ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Packers; negative values favor Buccaneers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPackers · $54.5K
6hPackers · $35.7K
24hPackers · $35.7K

Packers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Packers price. Buccaneers fills are converted to the complementary Packers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current74.5¢
VWAP 24h52.2¢▲ above by 22.3pp
VWAP 7d52.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Packers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$44
50¢
$113.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPackers$12.9K@ 52.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPackers$12.8K@ 52.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPackers$12.8K@ 52.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPackers$10.5K@ 52.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYBuccaneers$19.2K@ 48.0¢0xbc43…96d3🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYBuccaneers$18.8K@ 47.0¢
bands10xa080…234f
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooPackers$64.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·8 fills
0xbc43…96d3Buccaneers$19.2K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
bands1Buccaneers$18.8K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingPackers$10.5K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.