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US Open ATP: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $127.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $708.9KEvent: US Open ATP: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti
2.8¢
Arthur Fery
97.2¢
Lorenzo Musetti
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:82 trades$406.5K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 36s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Musetti · $337.5K net·9 wallets(3🐋)·$339.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLorenzo Musetti$55.4K@ 79¢·beachboy4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Lorenzo Musetti pressure: $18.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$18.1K
6h
−$286.3K
tracked
$406.5K

9 verified profitable wallets: Lorenzo Musetti · $337.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 70

Since latest position change: +19.3pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 19.3pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Lorenzo Musetti or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 78.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 77.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 77.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fery; negative values favor Lorenzo Musetti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Musetti · $18.1K
6hLorenzo Musetti · $286.3K
24hLorenzo Musetti · $302.3K

Arthur Fery price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fery price. Lorenzo Musetti fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fery probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.8¢
VWAP 24h20.7¢▼ below by 17.9pp
VWAP 7d20.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fery price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$39.0K
20¢
$321.3K
15¢
$27
10¢
$37
5¢
$14.4K
0¢
← now
$31.7K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLorenzo Musetti$12.8K@ 95.0¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$13.7K@ 95.8¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—11 minutes ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$13.7K@ 96.9¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$18.1K@ 75.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$25.1K@ 76.6¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Fery$10.0K@ 22.8¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$10.8K@ 76.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$23.2K@ 75.6¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$31.6K@ 79.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$55.4K@ 79.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$18.9K@ 78.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$36.5K@ 77.8¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$23.1K@ 77.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$30.7K@ 76.9¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$18.1K@ 75.5¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beachboy4Lorenzo Musetti$285.7K
BUY VWAP 77.5¢·12 fills
fkcvffcjtLorenzo Musetti$27.3K
BUY VWAP 96.3¢·2 fills
0x5f65…2036Arthur Fery$25.8K
BUY VWAP 25.0¢·4 fills
0x2c33…0563Lorenzo Musetti$18.1K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.