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US Open ATP: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils

● quote 15s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $242.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: US Open ATP: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils
99.9¢
Stefanos Tsitsipas
0.1¢
Arthur Fils
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 22 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:244 trades$486.6K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Fils · $49.2K net·22 wallets(4🐋)·$192.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Fils$26.0K@ 84¢·0b1fe

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Arthur Fils pressure: $56.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$56.8K
6h
−$142.1K
tracked
$486.6K

22 verified profitable wallets: Arthur Fils · $49.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +19.3pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 19.3pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Arthur Fils or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Arthur Fils in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Arthur Fils. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas39m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas@ 80.7¢48m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Fils@ 84.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Fils@ 84.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: Stefanos Tsitsipas UP 4.4pp · near-book depth $4.4K → $50.0K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Stefanos Tsitsipas; negative values favor Arthur Fils. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $56.8K
6hArthur Fils · $142.1K
24hArthur Fils · $163.8K

Stefanos Tsitsipas price VWAP

Volume-weighted Stefanos Tsitsipas price. Arthur Fils fills are converted to the complementary Stefanos Tsitsipas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h49.9¢▲ above by 50.0pp
VWAP 7d49.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Stefanos Tsitsipas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$71.6K
90¢
$8.5K
85¢
$24.7K
80¢
$26.8K
75¢
$22.4K
70¢
$21.7K
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$295
55¢
$27.5K
50¢
$22.1K
45¢
$35.6K
40¢
$17.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$3.8K
25¢
$9.6K
20¢
$8.8K
15¢
$146.8K
10¢
$9.4K
5¢
$6.7K
0¢
$23.2K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLStefanos Tsitsipas$13.4K@ 99.9¢0x772f…8145🐋—18 minutes ago
SELLStefanos Tsitsipas$23.0K@ 99.9¢
Biarritz0x71fd…77df
🐋—32 minutes ago
SELLStefanos Tsitsipas$11.1K@ 89.0¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—39 minutes ago
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$10.4K@ 79.9¢
paquitomillonario0x04e6…3914
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$10.0K@ 74.3¢0x772f…8145🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Fils$15.0K@ 51.6¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Fils$17.4K@ 57.9¢
alexdave8880xa4fd…748b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLArthur Fils$14.3K@ 97.0¢0x32b4…8b21🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils$12.0K@ 84.0¢
Laizans0xd0fd…a7da
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils$15.0K@ 84.0¢
ssj30x1a95…3a16
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils$25.2K@ 83.9¢
ssj30x1a95…3a16
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils$26.0K@ 84.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ssj3Arthur Fils$40.2K
BUY VWAP 83.9¢·2 fills
0b1feArthur Fils$35.0K
BUY VWAP 83.7¢·4 fills
alexdave888Arthur Fils$31.0K
BUY VWAP 51.7¢·3 fills
0x5f65…2036Arthur Fils$15.0K
BUY VWAP 51.6¢·1 fill
LaizansArthur Fils$12.0K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·1 fill
FlaznorpStefanos Tsitsipas$10.8K
BUY VWAP 72.5¢·5 fills
0x076d…8d4cStefanos Tsitsipas$10.6K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·4 fills
paquitomillonarioStefanos Tsitsipas$10.4K
BUY VWAP 79.9¢·1 fill
0x772f…8145Stefanos Tsitsipas$10.0K
BUY VWAP 74.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.