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San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $995Official 24h Vol: $310.6KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
49.5¢
Over
50.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution66Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$148.7K tracked19% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 52s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $18.9K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$18.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$46.2K@ 50¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
+$22.3K
tracked
$148.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: Over · $18.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-02 16:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds combine to score 10 or more runs in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 10, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for September 2 at 12:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds combine to score 10 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 10, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $7.6K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $5.4K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $4.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 50.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 50.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 49.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 52.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Over DOWN 17.0pp · near-book depth $0 → $63 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $5
6hOver · $22.3K
24hOver · $22.3K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h49.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d49.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$2
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1
65¢
$7
60¢
$0
55¢
$72
50¢
$51.1K
45¢
← now
$97.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$46.2K@ 50.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYOver$17.0K@ 49.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYOver$15.0K@ 49.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYUnder$39.0K@ 52.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYUnder$13.4K@ 51.0¢
monkeymashingkeyboard0x684b…8409
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYUnder$10.4K@ 51.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Over$63.2K
BUY VWAP 49.7¢·2 fills
SDTradingUnder$39.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
BrotherObamaOver$15.0K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
monkeymashingkeyboardUnder$13.4K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
ic4creamUnder$10.4K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.