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1st Half Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $14.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $128.6KEvent: Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC - More Markets
17.0¢
Lille OSC
83.0¢
Toulouse FC
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution54Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:37 trades$31.2K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 667 min agoofficial metadata 50s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lille OSC · $12.8K net·3 wallets·$24.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToulouse FC$3.8K@ 79¢·matanovik

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$31.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: Lille OSC · $12.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 667 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-03 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ligue1.com/
Outcome meaning

•In the upcoming Ligue 1 game between Toulouse FC and Lille OSC, scheduled for September 3 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lille OSC" if Lille OSC win the first half by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Toulouse FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Ligue 1 game between Toulouse FC and Lille OSC, scheduled for September 3 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lille OSC" if Lille OSC win the first half by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Toulouse FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lille OSC; negative values favor Toulouse FC. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLille OSC · $0
6hLille OSC · $0
24hLille OSC · $7.8K

Lille OSC price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lille OSC price. Toulouse FC fills are converted to the complementary Lille OSC probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current17.0¢
VWAP 24h33.2¢▼ below by 16.2pp
VWAP 7d33.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lille OSC price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$14.1K
35¢
$6
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.1K
20¢
$9.7K
15¢
← now
$746
10¢
$2.1K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesLille OSC$18.7K
BUY VWAP 41.4¢·10 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.