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US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $43.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $12.0KEvent: US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci
88.5¢
Taylor Fritz
11.5¢
Mattia Bellucci
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$29.3K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 112 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Taylor Fritz · $19.2K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$19.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTaylor Fritz$11.5K@ 89¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$46
tracked
$29.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: Taylor Fritz · $19.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 112 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Mattia Bellucci in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Mattia Bellucci. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Taylor Fritz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Taylor Fritz; negative values favor Mattia Bellucci. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaylor Fritz · $0
6hMattia Bellucci · $46
24hTaylor Fritz · $29.1K

Taylor Fritz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Taylor Fritz price. Mattia Bellucci fills are converted to the complementary Taylor Fritz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current88.5¢
VWAP 24h88.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d88.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Taylor Fritz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$29.3K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTaylor Fritz$11.5K@ 89.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$10.0K@ 87.9¢
Cuco840xf3b0…23a1
🐋—about 23 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Taylor Fritz$17.0K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·2 fills
Cuco84Taylor Fritz$10.0K
BUY VWAP 87.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.