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New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $12.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $424.4KEvent: New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
96.9¢
New York Mets
3.1¢
Miami Marlins
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution76Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:87 trades$156.3K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:New York Mets · $952 net·3 wallets·$3.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Mets$29.7K@ 46¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

New York Mets pressure: $25.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$25.7K
6h
+$46.0K
tracked
$156.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: New York Mets · $952 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -47.7pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from New York Mets or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-15 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins, scheduled for September 8 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $48.7K gross
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $45.7K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $19.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Miami Marlins@ 51.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -42.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY New York Mets@ 49.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY New York Mets@ 48.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY New York Mets@ 47.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Miami Marlins DOWN 6.6pp · near-book depth $85 → $1.2K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor New York Mets; negative values favor Miami Marlins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNew York Mets · $25.7K
6hNew York Mets · $46.0K
24hNew York Mets · $75.0K

New York Mets price VWAP

Volume-weighted New York Mets price. Miami Marlins fills are converted to the complementary New York Mets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current96.9¢
VWAP 24h62.4¢▲ above by 34.5pp
VWAP 7d62.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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New York Mets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.7K
90¢
$25.0K
85¢
$10.3K
80¢
$8.3K
75¢
$0
70¢
$4.4K
65¢
$1
60¢
$0
55¢
$42
50¢
$526
45¢
$100.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNew York Mets$13.0K@ 92.8¢
User12443220xe558…dcd2
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYMiami Marlins$28.1K@ 51.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNew York Mets$19.1K@ 48.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYNew York Mets$17.5K@ 47.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYNew York Mets$29.7K@ 46.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 12 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1New York Mets$68.2K
BUY VWAP 46.8¢·4 fills
SDTradingMiami Marlins$28.1K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
User1244322New York Mets$13.0K
BUY VWAP 92.8¢·1 fill
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rNew York Mets$11.5K
BUY VWAP 84.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.