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Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Wu (+2.5)

Sports→Settlement: AlcarazLiquidity: $28.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $92.1KEvent: US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz
100.0¢
Alcaraz payout
0.0¢
Wu. payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlcaraz$26.6K@ 100¢·kkookkoo

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alcaraz. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 3 or more sets than Yibing Wu, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Wu."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 3 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Wu."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Yibing Wu in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 3 or more sets than Yibing Wu, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Wu." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 3 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Wu." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alcaraz; negative values favor Wu.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWu. · $26.6K
6hWu. · $11.6K
24hWu. · $11.6K

Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alcaraz price. Wu. fills are converted to the complementary Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h84.2¢▲ above by 15.8pp
VWAP 7d84.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$26.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$15.0K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlcaraz$26.6K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—4 days ago
BUYAlcaraz$15.0K@ 56.3¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooAlcaraz$15.0K
BUY VWAP 56.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.