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US Open WTA: Madison Keys vs Qinwen Zheng

● quote 26s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $317.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $873.3KEvent: US Open WTA: Madison Keys vs Qinwen Zheng
0.1¢
Madison Keys
100.0¢
Qinwen Zheng
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets19Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:253 trades$362.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Qinwen Zheng · $12.0K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$62.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMadison Keys$26.3K@ 60¢·justwins

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Madison Keys pressure: $42.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$42.0K
6h
+$82.0K
tracked
$362.3K

17 verified profitable wallets: Qinwen Zheng · $12.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -29.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Madison Keys or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Madison Keys and Qinwen Zheng in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Madison Keys' if Madison Keys advances against Qinwen Zheng. This market will resolve to 'Qinwen Zheng' if Qinwen Zheng advances against Madison Keys. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPSELL Qinwen Zheng@ 70.9¢15m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Madison Keys2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Madison Keys@ 64.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +22.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp
Latest book event: Qinwen Zheng UP 5.8pp · near-book depth $6.3K → $320 · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Madison Keys; negative values favor Qinwen Zheng. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMadison Keys · $42.0K
6hMadison Keys · $82.0K
24hMadison Keys · $82.0K

Madison Keys price VWAP

Volume-weighted Madison Keys price. Qinwen Zheng fills are converted to the complementary Madison Keys probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h53.2¢▼ below by 53.2pp
VWAP 7d53.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Madison Keys price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$36.7K
90¢
$24.4K
85¢
$27.4K
80¢
$7.8K
75¢
$11.9K
70¢
$20.1K
65¢
$32
60¢
$68.5K
55¢
$30.9K
50¢
$12.7K
45¢
$3.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$34.0K
10¢
$25.8K
5¢
$32.5K
0¢
← now
$23.5K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYQinwen Zheng$20.0K@ 94.0¢
Paul9739730xa108…abd3
🐋—14 minutes ago
SELLQinwen Zheng$19.8K@ 84.1¢0x5f65…2036🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYMadison Keys$10.0K@ 94.2¢
madridcurious440xa31a…d023
🐋—37 minutes ago
BUYMadison Keys$13.0K@ 98.0¢
blket0xb5db…5800
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMadison Keys$26.3K@ 60.0¢
justwins0xa2cc…0cbc
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMadison Keys$12.0K@ 60.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

justwinsMadison Keys$26.3K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
Paul973973Qinwen Zheng$25.0K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·2 fills
hurricanQinwen Zheng$14.9K
BUY VWAP 62.1¢·2 fills
blketMadison Keys$13.0K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill
CORGI8Madison Keys$12.0K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardQinwen Zheng$10.3K
BUY VWAP 68.5¢·2 fills
madridcurious44Madison Keys$10.0K
BUY VWAP 94.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.