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US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $240.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $649.3KEvent: US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo
89.5¢
Taylor Fritz
10.5¢
Francisco Cerundolo
0.9¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets94Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority75Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:229 trades$284.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Taylor Fritz · $122.2K net·11 wallets(2🐋)·$129.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTaylor Fritz$22.7K@ 64¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Taylor Fritz pressure: $89.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$89.2K
6h
+$144.0K
tracked
$284.5K

11 verified profitable wallets: Taylor Fritz · $122.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.9¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 75

Since latest liquidity absorption: +21.3pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 21.3pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Taylor Fritz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Francisco Cerundolo in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Francisco Cerundolo. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Taylor Fritz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Taylor Fritz@ 68.6¢15m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Taylor Fritz15m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Taylor Fritz15m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Taylor Fritz@ 62.3¢21m ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp
Latest book event: Francisco Cerundolo DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $16.5K → $140 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Taylor Fritz; negative values favor Francisco Cerundolo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaylor Fritz · $89.2K
6hTaylor Fritz · $144.0K
24hTaylor Fritz · $170.6K

Taylor Fritz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Taylor Fritz price. Francisco Cerundolo fills are converted to the complementary Taylor Fritz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h75.0¢▲ above by 14.4pp
VWAP 7d75.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Taylor Fritz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$6.5K
90¢
$26.6K
85¢
← now
$71.3K
80¢
$26.7K
75¢
$4.2K
70¢
$8.1K
65¢
$51.5K
60¢
$64.7K
55¢
$24.8K
50¢
$50
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrancisco Cerundolo$13.0K@ 32.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—9 minutes ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$22.7K@ 63.7¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—39 minutes ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$17.0K@ 92.7¢0x772f…8145🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$15.0K@ 86.9¢
Cuco840xf3b0…23a1
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cTaylor Fritz$67.5K
BUY VWAP 64.9¢·13 fills
FlaznorpTaylor Fritz$20.7K
BUY VWAP 71.5¢·8 fills
0x772f…8145Taylor Fritz$17.0K
BUY VWAP 92.7¢·1 fill
Cuco84Taylor Fritz$15.0K
BUY VWAP 86.9¢·1 fill
AGUGavaTaylor Fritz$13.1K
BUY VWAP 87.0¢·2 fills
kkookkooFrancisco Cerundolo$13.0K
BUY VWAP 32.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.