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Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

● quote 39s ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $145.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $550Event: San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
41.5¢
New York Mets
58.5¢
San Francisco Giants
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$20.0K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 118 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:San Francisco Giants · $7.1K net·2 wallets·$7.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Francisco Giants$7.8K@ 56¢·ic4cream

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$19.9K
tracked
$20.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: San Francisco Giants · $7.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 118 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets, scheduled for September 5 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ic4cream2 linked markets · $10.0K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $8.2K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $7.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor New York Mets; negative values favor San Francisco Giants. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNew York Mets · $0
6hSan Francisco Giants · $19.9K
24hSan Francisco Giants · $19.9K

New York Mets price VWAP

Volume-weighted New York Mets price. San Francisco Giants fills are converted to the complementary New York Mets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h43.9¢▼ below by 2.4pp
VWAP 7d43.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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New York Mets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$20.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.