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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $89.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $514.6KEvent: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
0.8¢
Pittsburgh Pirates
99.3¢
Chicago Cubs
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution98Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:101 trades$250.7K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 11s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chicago Cubs · $73.5K net·8 wallets(2🐋)·$73.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPittsburgh Pirates$32.3K@ 37¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Chicago Cubs pressure: $23.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$23.4K
6h
−$108.8K
tracked
$250.7K

8 verified profitable wallets: Chicago Cubs · $73.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -27.1pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chicago Cubs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for September 11 at 2:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $32.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Chicago Cubs@ 72.0¢58m ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Chicago Cubs@ 65.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h CONFIRMED +28.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago Cubs@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Pittsburgh Pirates@ 38.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Chicago Cubs UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $3.3K → $7.7K · 27s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pittsburgh Pirates; negative values favor Chicago Cubs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChicago Cubs · $23.4K
6hChicago Cubs · $108.8K
24hChicago Cubs · $101.8K

Pittsburgh Pirates price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates price. Chicago Cubs fills are converted to the complementary Pittsburgh Pirates probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.8¢
VWAP 24h33.8¢▼ below by 33.0pp
VWAP 7d33.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pittsburgh Pirates price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$328
40¢
$19.3K
35¢
$207.3K
30¢
$346
25¢
$6
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$5
5¢
$23.3K
0¢
← now
$161

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChicago Cubs$12.5K@ 95.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—14 minutes ago
SELLChicago Cubs$14.0K@ 56.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPittsburgh Pirates$13.2K@ 36.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$16.3K@ 65.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$10.0K@ 65.0¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$19.4K@ 65.0¢
thatguythatguy0x3170…c6a0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$18.6K@ 64.7¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$32.0K@ 64.0¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPittsburgh Pirates$32.3K@ 37.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$10.8K@ 64.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYPittsburgh Pirates$11.3K@ 36.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Pittsburgh Pirates$46.3K
BUY VWAP 36.8¢·3 fills
0x78be…bde0Chicago Cubs$32.0K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
FeromontChicago Cubs$28.8K
BUY VWAP 75.4¢·2 fills
quavooChicago Cubs$28.2K
BUY VWAP 62.7¢·20 fills
thatguythatguyChicago Cubs$19.4K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
kkookkooChicago Cubs$18.6K
BUY VWAP 64.7¢·1 fill
SDTradingPittsburgh Pirates$13.2K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·1 fill
RunemupChicago Cubs$12.8K
BUY VWAP 64.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.