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Genoa: Matej Dodig vs Enrico Dalla Valle

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $164.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $476.2KEvent: Genoa: Matej Dodig vs Enrico Dalla Valle
91.5¢
Matej Dodig
8.5¢
Enrico Dalla Valle
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets44Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution98Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:131 trades$191.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Matej Dodig · $27.7K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$63.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMatej Dodig$18.1K@ 71¢·watcherz88

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Matej Dodig pressure: $8.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.9K
6h
+$71.4K
tracked
$191.7K

12 verified profitable wallets: Matej Dodig · $27.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 54

Since latest large flow: +19.7pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 19.7pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Matej Dodig or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matej Dodig and Enrico Dalla Valle in the Genoa, originally scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matej Dodig' if Matej Dodig advances against Enrico Dalla Valle. This market will resolve to 'Enrico Dalla Valle' if Enrico Dalla Valle advances against Matej Dodig. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Matej Dodig@ 72.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Matej Dodig@ 72.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -8.0pp
Latest book event: Matej Dodig UP 9.3pp · near-book depth $1.0K → $11.0K · 34s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matej Dodig; negative values favor Enrico Dalla Valle. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatej Dodig · $8.9K
6hMatej Dodig · $71.4K
24hMatej Dodig · $71.4K

Matej Dodig price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matej Dodig price. Enrico Dalla Valle fills are converted to the complementary Matej Dodig probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current91.5¢
VWAP 24h64.7¢▲ above by 26.8pp
VWAP 7d64.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matej Dodig price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$2.9K
90¢
← now
$13.4K
85¢
$1.5K
80¢
$10
75¢
$2.1K
70¢
$53.7K
65¢
$45.0K
60¢
$22.4K
55¢
$11.2K
50¢
$4.0K
45¢
$3.2K
40¢
$30.8K
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMatej Dodig$13.3K@ 71.1¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatej Dodig$10.7K@ 67.6¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMatej Dodig$10.0K@ 71.3¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMatej Dodig$18.1K@ 71.4¢
watcherz880xc5a2…6dd9
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Matej Dodig$40.1K
BUY VWAP 66.4¢·8 fills
watcherz88Matej Dodig$18.1K
BUY VWAP 71.4¢·1 fill
RunemupMatej Dodig$13.0K
BUY VWAP 61.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.