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LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner

● quote 12s ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $910.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
100.0¢
GIANTX
0.1¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 28 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:353 trades$426.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $4.0K net·28 wallets(3🐋)·$190.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLGIANTX$48.5K@ 100¢·verifly

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $61.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$61.3K
6h
−$108.7K
tracked
$426.3K

28 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $4.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +38.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 38.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win Game 4 against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 4 against GIANTX.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between GIANTX and Natus Vincere in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win Game 4 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 4 against GIANTX. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e4 linked markets · $109.5K gross
5e46h3 linked markets · $100.4K gross
BrotherObama2 linked markets · $74.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY GIANTX1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY GIANTX@ 62.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Natus Vincere DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $0 → $51 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor GIANTX; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $61.3K
6hNatus Vincere · $108.7K
24hNatus Vincere · $108.7K

GIANTX price VWAP

Volume-weighted GIANTX price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary GIANTX probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h66.7¢▲ above by 33.3pp
VWAP 7d66.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

GIANTX price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$163.0K
90¢
$72
85¢
$2.2K
80¢
$3.1K
75¢
$1.6K
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$4.7K
60¢
$1.4K
55¢
$12.3K
50¢
$30.3K
45¢
$146.7K
40¢
$16.4K
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$2.5K
25¢
$27.0K
20¢
$6.1K
15¢
$6.0K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLGIANTX$20.9K@ 99.9¢
ColinHe0x6842…20d0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLGIANTX$25.2K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLGIANTX$48.5K@ 99.9¢
verifly0x5286…0d47
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYGIANTX$10.0K@ 50.0¢
trgparking0xe361…ae44
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYGIANTX$15.0K@ 48.9¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYGIANTX$10.0K@ 49.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYGIANTX$16.0K@ 48.7¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaGIANTX$44.1K
BUY VWAP 48.7¢·4 fills
0xf201…527eNatus Vincere$25.3K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·8 fills
5e46hGIANTX$20.2K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·4 fills
Sunshine.SmileNatus Vincere$12.9K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·3 fills
srar333Natus Vincere$12.0K
BUY VWAP 53.7¢·3 fills
trgparkingGIANTX$10.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.