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Genoa: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi

Sports→Settlement: Juan Pablo VarillasLiquidity: $187.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $258.7KEvent: Genoa: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi
100.0¢
Juan Pablo Varillas payout
0.0¢
Federico Arnaboldi payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:31 trades$96.3K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 195 min agoofficial metadata 164 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Juan Pablo Varillas · $2.3K net·4 wallets·$10.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJuan Pablo Varillas$15.4K@ 84¢·Antblack

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Juan Pablo Varillas. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-15 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Varillas and Federico Arnaboldi in the Genoa, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Federico Arnaboldi. This market will resolve to 'Federico Arnaboldi' if Federico Arnaboldi advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Federico Arnaboldi@ 35.7¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -33.4pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Federico Arnaboldi DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.5K → $804 · 27s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Juan Pablo Varillas; negative values favor Federico Arnaboldi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFederico Arnaboldi · $21.9K
6hFederico Arnaboldi · $24.1K
24hFederico Arnaboldi · $24.1K

Juan Pablo Varillas price VWAP

Volume-weighted Juan Pablo Varillas price. Federico Arnaboldi fills are converted to the complementary Juan Pablo Varillas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h71.5¢▲ above by 28.5pp
VWAP 7d71.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Juan Pablo Varillas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$16.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$55
80¢
$15.6K
75¢
$0
70¢
$5
65¢
$43.0K
60¢
$8.6K
55¢
$2.1K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$2.9K
35¢
$2.8K
30¢
$5.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJuan Pablo Varillas$15.4K@ 83.5¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$10.0K@ 31.1¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$10.0K@ 31.2¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYJuan Pablo Varillas$12.2K@ 66.2¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Federico Arnaboldi$29.4K
BUY VWAP 31.1¢·3 fills
AntblackJuan Pablo Varillas$12.2K
BUY VWAP 66.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.