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Spread: Georgia (-24.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $20Official 24h Vol: $194.1KEvent: Georgia vs. Arkansas
99.1¢
Georgia
2.0¢
Arkansas
38.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$89.4K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 195 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGeorgia$30.0K@ 52¢·0xd38b…5029

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3.1K
tracked
$89.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Georgia · $4.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
38.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -51.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 195 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 38.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-19 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Georgia" if Georgia win the game by 25 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Arkansas".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 19 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Georgia" if Georgia win the game by 25 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Arkansas". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $5.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Georgia@ 51.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Arkansas DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $15 → $19 · 25s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Georgia; negative values favor Arkansas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGeorgia · $0
6hArkansas · $3.1K
24hArkansas · $6.1K

Georgia price VWAP

Volume-weighted Georgia price. Arkansas fills are converted to the complementary Georgia probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.1¢
VWAP 24h51.4¢▲ above by 47.7pp
VWAP 7d51.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Georgia price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.6K
55¢
$0
50¢
$87.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArkansas$14.6K@ 50.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYGeorgia$30.0K@ 52.0¢0xd38b…5029🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xd38b…5029Georgia$30.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
FeromontArkansas$28.6K
BUY VWAP 49.5¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.