Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on September 19?

● quote just now

Crypto→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $15.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $64.1KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit on September 19?

6.2¢

YES

93.8¢

4.9¢

Spread

anomaly82Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution43Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:12 trades$22.5K trackedsource coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$3.0K@ 86¢·0x06dc…4524

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$515

tracked

$22.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $526 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

4.9¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
•Spread is 4.9¢ before size-dependent slippage.
•Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-09-20 04:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $515

6hNO · $515

24hNO · $4.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current6.2¢

VWAP 24h48.3¢▼ below by 42.1pp

VWAP 7d48.3¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

$3.0K

80¢

$2.4K

75¢

$2.3K

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

$1.4K

40¢

35¢

30¢

$8.2K

25¢

$4.6K

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

← now

$11

0¢

$526

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x06dc…4524No$12.8K

BUY VWAP 69.6¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.