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Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $32.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $267.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
4.5¢
Aurora Gaming
95.5¢
Vitality
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:82 trades$106.8K trackedsource coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Vitality · $249 net·5 wallets·$38.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVitality$6.3K@ 75¢·cruzNBA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Vitality pressure: $21.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$21.7K
6h
−$27.9K
tracked
$106.8K

5 verified profitable wallets: Vitality · $249 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 46

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vitality or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 3 against Vitality.

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win Map 3 against Aurora Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand Final match between Aurora Gaming and Vitality in the StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 3 against Vitality. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win Map 3 against Aurora Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 3. If Map 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2984 linked markets · $66.5K gross
0xc323…00772 linked markets · $49.2K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $40.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Vitality UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $66 → $3.8K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor Vitality. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVitality · $21.7K
6hVitality · $27.9K
24hVitality · $27.9K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. Vitality fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.5¢
VWAP 24h36.6¢▼ below by 32.1pp
VWAP 7d36.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$4.5K
50¢
$5.6K
45¢
$5.2K
40¢
$20.1K
35¢
$37.1K
30¢
$6.0K
25¢
$13.0K
20¢
$5.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$7.1K
5¢
$3.3K
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

cruzNBAAurora Gaming$15.7K
BUY VWAP 48.3¢·10 fills
cruzNBAVitality$10.5K
BUY VWAP 74.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.