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Hawai'i vs. Wyoming

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $70.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $91.9KEvent: Hawai'i vs. Wyoming
56.5¢
Hawaii
43.5¢
Wyoming
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$42.1K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 16s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hawaii · $8.2K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$30.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHawaii$12.5K@ 59¢·ic4cream

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Wyoming pressure: $11.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$11.1K
6h
−$21.9K
tracked
$42.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Hawaii · $8.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Wyoming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Hawai'i" if Hawai'i win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Wyoming" if Wyoming win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Hawai'i and Wyoming, scheduled for September 26 at 3:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Hawai'i" if Hawai'i win the game. This market will resolve to "Wyoming" if Wyoming win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ic4cream2 linked markets · $22.1K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $2.2K gross
0xfdc3…f14e2 linked markets · $102 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Hawaii@ 58.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hawaii; negative values favor Wyoming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWyoming · $11.1K
6hWyoming · $21.9K
24hWyoming · $1.8K

Hawaii price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hawaii price. Wyoming fills are converted to the complementary Hawaii probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h57.7¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d57.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hawaii price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$42.1K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYWyoming$11.0K@ 44.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYHawaii$12.5K@ 59.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ic4creamHawaii$18.9K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·2 fills
PwaddlerWyoming$11.0K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
Elaran1993Wyoming$10.9K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.