PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Toledo vs. Ball State: O/U 51.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 37 minutesLiquidity: $68.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.0KEvent: Toledo vs. Ball State
64.5¢
Over
35.5¢
Under
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection28Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution81Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$32.5K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$17.8K@ 52¢·0x7b47…d615

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Over pressure: $8.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.9K
6h
+$24.3K
tracked
$32.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: Over · $8.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 45 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Over or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Toledo and Ball State combine to score 52 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 52, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 2:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Toledo and Ball State combine to score 52 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 52, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Over UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $1 → $660 · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $8.9K
6hOver · $24.3K
24hOver · $24.3K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.5¢
VWAP 24h52.6¢▲ above by 11.9pp
VWAP 7d52.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$32.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$17.8K@ 52.3¢0x7b47…d615🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
0.1¢$864.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?
92.5¢$809.5Kpriority90Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: 1win vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier
100.0¢$753.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: LOUD vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$525.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner
0.1¢$489.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Packers vs. Buccaneers
59.5¢$470.5Kpriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
71.5¢$442.2Kpriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Colts vs. Commanders
66.5¢$441.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7b47…d615Over$17.8K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardOver$10.1K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.