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Tolentino: Noemi Basiletti vs Mia Ristic

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $40.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $136.0KEvent: Tolentino: Noemi Basiletti vs Mia Ristic
70.5¢
Noemi Basiletti
29.5¢
Mia Ristic
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution82Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:60 trades$38.6K trackedsource coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Noemi Basiletti · $1.1K net·5 wallets·$3.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNoemi Basiletti$9.5K@ 31¢·Antblack

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$615
6h
+$25.7K
tracked
$38.6K

5 verified profitable wallets: Noemi Basiletti · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +30.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 30.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Noemi Basiletti and Mia Ristic in the Tolentino, originally scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Noemi Basiletti' if Noemi Basiletti advances against Mia Ristic. This market will resolve to 'Mia Ristic' if Mia Ristic advances against Noemi Basiletti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Noemi Basiletti@ 41.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
Latest book event: Noemi Basiletti DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $9.1K → $1.9K · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Noemi Basiletti; negative values favor Mia Ristic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNoemi Basiletti · $615
6hNoemi Basiletti · $25.7K
24hNoemi Basiletti · $25.7K

Noemi Basiletti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Noemi Basiletti price. Mia Ristic fills are converted to the complementary Noemi Basiletti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.5¢
VWAP 24h35.6¢▲ above by 34.9pp
VWAP 7d35.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Noemi Basiletti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$4
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.1K
55¢
$0
50¢
$7
45¢
$2.9K
40¢
$1.6K
35¢
$13.5K
30¢
$16.4K
25¢
$318
20¢
$2.8K
15¢
$24
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AntblackNoemi Basiletti$19.5K
BUY VWAP 33.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.