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Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $125.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $80.7KEvent: 49ers vs. Seahawks
27.5¢
49ers
72.5¢
Seahawks
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$28.9K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 258 min agoofficial metadata 12s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY49ers$16.8K@ 27¢·0xbc43…96d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$4.7K
tracked
$28.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Seahawks · $15.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 258 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Seahawks".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between 49ers and Seahawks, scheduled for October 11 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Seahawks". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY 49ers@ 28.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 49ers; negative values favor Seahawks. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h49ers · $0
6h49ers · $4.7K
24h49ers · $4.7K

49ers price VWAP

Volume-weighted 49ers price. Seahawks fills are converted to the complementary 49ers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.5¢
VWAP 24h27.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d27.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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49ers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$33.9K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUY49ers$16.8K@ 27.0¢0xbc43…96d3🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xbc43…96d349ers$16.8K
BUY VWAP 27.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardSeahawks$15.8K
BUY VWAP 72.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.