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Spread: Seahawks (-17.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $164.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $150.7KEvent: Seahawks vs. Commanders
22.5¢
Seahawks
77.5¢
Commanders
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$52.5K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 25s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Commanders · $13.4K net·2 wallets·$13.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSeahawks$13.8K@ 23¢·0xbc43…96d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Seahawks pressure: $10.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.1K
6h
+$10.1K
tracked
$52.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: Commanders · $13.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Seahawks or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Seahawks" if the Seahawks win the game by 18 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Seahawks and Commanders, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seahawks" if the Seahawks win the game by 18 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz262 linked markets · $153.7K gross
HomeRunHazard5 linked markets · $48.4K gross
Herdonia3 linked markets · $31.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Seahawks@ 24.0¢25m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Seahawks; negative values favor Commanders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSeahawks · $10.1K
6hSeahawks · $10.1K
24hSeahawks · $3.5K

Seahawks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Seahawks price. Commanders fills are converted to the complementary Seahawks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.5¢
VWAP 24h22.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d22.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Seahawks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$52.5K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSeahawks$13.8K@ 23.0¢0xbc43…96d3🐋—43 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Spread: Bills (-7.5)
47.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-6.5)
51.5¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
84.5¢$863.8Kpriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xbc43…96d3Seahawks$26.6K
BUY VWAP 22.8¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardCommanders$12.5K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.