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Buenos Aires 2: Francisco Comesana vs Joaquin Aguilar

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $42.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $369.4KEvent: Buenos Aires 2: Francisco Comesana vs Joaquin Aguilar
34.5¢
Francisco Comesana
65.5¢
Joaquin Aguilar
7.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets75Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:215 trades$92.8K trackedsource coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Joaquin Aguilar · $3.5K net·9 wallets·$4.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancisco Comesana$8.9K@ 51¢·Runemup

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Francisco Comesana pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.4K
6h
+$25.3K
tracked
$92.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Joaquin Aguilar · $3.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
7.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 81% · priority 60

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 7.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Francisco Comesana or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 21:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Comesana and Joaquin Aguilar in the Buenos Aires 2, originally scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 5:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Comesana' if Francisco Comesana advances against Joaquin Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Francisco Comesana. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Francisco Comesana UP 13.5pp · near-book depth $51 → $1.9K · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francisco Comesana; negative values favor Joaquin Aguilar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancisco Comesana · $1.4K
6hFrancisco Comesana · $25.3K
24hFrancisco Comesana · $28.6K

Francisco Comesana price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francisco Comesana price. Joaquin Aguilar fills are converted to the complementary Francisco Comesana probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h50.0¢▼ below by 15.5pp
VWAP 7d50.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francisco Comesana price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.9K
80¢
$148
75¢
$0
70¢
$6.2K
65¢
$5.1K
60¢
$7.5K
55¢
$11.8K
50¢
$16.3K
45¢
$10.1K
40¢
$9.9K
35¢
$15.6K
30¢
← now
$388
25¢
$2.0K
20¢
$1.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$4.8K
5¢
$50
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RunemupFrancisco Comesana$15.2K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.