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Spread: Spain (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $217.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $201.1KEvent: Croatia vs. Spain - More Markets
52.5¢
Spain
47.5¢
Croatia
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly53Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:53 trades$85.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Croatia · $64.2K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$76.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCroatia$12.6K@ 47¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Croatia pressure: $1.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.3K
6h
+$5.0K
tracked
$85.7K

5 verified profitable wallets: Croatia · $64.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 25 minutes old.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Croatia or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spain" if Spain win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Croatia".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for October 6 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Spain" if Spain win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Croatia". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Croatia@ 47.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Croatia@ 47.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spain; negative values favor Croatia. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCroatia · $1.3K
6hSpain · $5.0K
24hCroatia · $66.5K

Spain price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spain price. Croatia fills are converted to the complementary Spain probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h53.8¢▼ below by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d53.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spain price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$20.7K
50¢
← now
$66.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCroatia$12.6K@ 47.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cCroatia$68.9K
BUY VWAP 46.4¢·28 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.