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China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $188.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $582.3KEvent: China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur
65.5¢
Novak Djokovic
34.5¢
Alex de Minaur
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:147 trades$259.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 71 min agoofficial metadata 21s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Novak Djokovic · $9.5K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$49.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex de Minaur$15.6K@ 39¢·optimusprime777879

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alex de Minaur pressure: $17.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.4K
6h
−$42.8K
tracked
$259.1K

11 verified profitable wallets: Novak Djokovic · $9.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 55

Since latest accumulation: -5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 71 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex de Minaur or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Alex de Minaur in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Novak Djokovic' if Novak Djokovic advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Novak Djokovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Alex de Minaur@ 40.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 39.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Alex de Minaur UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $16.2K → $6.7K · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Novak Djokovic; negative values favor Alex de Minaur. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex de Minaur · $17.4K
6hAlex de Minaur · $42.8K
24hAlex de Minaur · $20.6K

Novak Djokovic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Novak Djokovic price. Alex de Minaur fills are converted to the complementary Novak Djokovic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.5¢
VWAP 24h61.8¢▲ above by 3.7pp
VWAP 7d61.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Novak Djokovic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$881
65¢
← now
$8.4K
60¢
$249.6K
55¢
$302
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNovak Djokovic$13.3K@ 61.0¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$15.6K@ 61.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$15.1K@ 61.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$15.6K@ 39.0¢
optimusprime7778790x922c…d8ba
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$13.6K@ 39.0¢
optimusprime7778790x922c…d8ba
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

optimusprime777879Alex de Minaur$64.4K
BUY VWAP 38.8¢·10 fills
ferrariChampions2026Novak Djokovic$25.6K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·3 fills
CORGI8Novak Djokovic$15.1K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
horrocruxNovak Djokovic$13.5K
BUY VWAP 61.8¢·2 fills
beeemwNovak Djokovic$13.3K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.