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Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5

● quote 59 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $621Official 24h Vol: —Event: Patriots vs. Bills
50.0¢
Over
50.0¢
Under
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution58Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:2 trades$31.0K tracked50% 🐋source coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 109 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$30.3K@ 98¢·0xfb99…0478

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$29.7K
tracked
$31.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 59 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 109 minutes old.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Patriots record 351 or more total offensive yards in this game.

•This market will resolve to "Under" if the Patriots record fewer than 351 total offensive yards.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game between Patriots and Bills, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Patriots record 351 or more total offensive yards in this game. This market will resolve to "Under" if the Patriots record fewer than 351 total offensive yards. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz262 linked markets · $111.9K gross
ArielFilipino3 linked markets · $65.6K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $48.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hUnder · $29.7K
24hUnder · $29.7K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h3.9¢▲ above by 46.1pp
VWAP 7d3.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$619
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$30.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$30.3K@ 98.0¢0xfb99…0478🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xfb99…0478Under$30.3K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.