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Counter-Strike: Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $137.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $962.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
62.5¢
Spirit
37.5¢
PARIVISION
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets91Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 97%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:183 trades$509.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 87%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:PARIVISION · $43.1K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$57.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit$164.0K@ 82¢·juice-fruit

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Spirit SETUP
What the tape says

Spirit pressure: $5.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.6K
6h
+$232.5K
tracked
$509.1K

11 verified profitable wallets: PARIVISION · $43.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 97% · priority 66

Since latest large flow: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Spirit or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against PARIVISION.

•This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win the match against Spirit.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Spirit and PARIVISION in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against PARIVISION. This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win the match against Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 4, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c3 linked markets · $50.3K gross
Sodoo2 linked markets · $38.6K gross
CORGI83 linked markets · $17.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 60.0¢10m ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Spirit@ 59.0¢13m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Spirit@ 85.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp1h INVALIDATED -26.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 82.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h INVALIDATED -23.0pp
Latest book event: Spirit UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $6.8K → $461 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor PARIVISION. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit · $5.6K
6hSpirit · $232.5K
24hSpirit · $251.2K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. PARIVISION fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.5¢
VWAP 24h73.9¢▼ below by 11.4pp
VWAP 7d73.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.7K
80¢
$307.4K
75¢
$6.8K
70¢
$7.1K
65¢
$1.6K
60¢
← now
$44.9K
55¢
$139.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPARIVISION$21.5K@ 41.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYSpirit$13.3K@ 59.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYPARIVISION$15.8K@ 42.4¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYPARIVISION$38.5K@ 40.2¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYSpirit$27.0K@ 59.9¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYSpirit$11.4K@ 82.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSpirit$41.0K@ 82.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSpirit$164.0K@ 82.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSpirit$16.4K@ 82.0¢
TrippleEX0x994e…6136
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLSpirit$12.2K@ 81.0¢
Sodoo0x0d7c…b7db
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYSpirit$21.0K@ 83.0¢
Sodoo0x0d7c…b7db
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

juice-fruitSpirit$263.6K
BUY VWAP 76.8¢·7 fills
0x076d…8d4cPARIVISION$43.3K
BUY VWAP 41.5¢·3 fills
fantasy7788PARIVISION$38.5K
BUY VWAP 40.2¢·1 fill
SodooSpirit$21.0K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·1 fill
TrippleEXSpirit$16.4K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·1 fill
0xeaa2…670eSpirit$11.8K
BUY VWAP 63.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.