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China Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Alex Molcan

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $155.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $596.4KEvent: China Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Alex Molcan
22.5¢
Marco Trungelliti payout
77.5¢
Alex Molcan payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:148 trades$338.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex Molcan · $33.6K net·17 wallets·$47.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Molcan$81.0K@ 79¢·raybanman

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-06 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Alex Molcan in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Alex Molcan. This market will resolve to 'Alex Molcan' if Alex Molcan advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 25m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 25m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alex Molcan1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alex Molcan1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alex Molcan1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Alex Molcan@ 78.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Alex Molcan UP 4.8pp · near-book depth $92.3K → $9.7K · 23s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marco Trungelliti; negative values favor Alex Molcan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Molcan · $67.8K
6hAlex Molcan · $261.9K
24hAlex Molcan · $261.9K

Marco Trungelliti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marco Trungelliti price. Alex Molcan fills are converted to the complementary Marco Trungelliti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.5¢
VWAP 24h21.8¢▲ above by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d21.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marco Trungelliti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$4.3K
40¢
$19.2K
35¢
$9.7K
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$2.2K
20¢
← now
$262.5K
15¢
$5.6K
10¢
$5.3K
5¢
$11.6K
0¢
$16.0K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex Molcan$18.2K@ 80.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Molcan$16.6K@ 80.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Molcan$22.9K@ 78.9¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex Molcan$76.8K@ 77.8¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex Molcan$81.0K@ 78.8¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex Molcan$11.0K@ 58.1¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

raybanmanAlex Molcan$231.4K
BUY VWAP 78.7¢·7 fills
0x2c33…0563Alex Molcan$16.9K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesAlex Molcan$11.5K
BUY VWAP 85.1¢·14 fills
KkunnMarco Trungelliti$11.4K
BUY VWAP 27.0¢·4 fills
0x0cdf…ec9eAlex Molcan$11.0K
BUY VWAP 58.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.