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Syracuse vs. Virginia

● quote 27s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $99.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.5KEvent: Syracuse vs. Virginia
18.5¢
Syracuse
81.5¢
Virginia
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets58Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$20.1K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 68 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Virginia · $15.8K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$18.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVirginia$16.9K@ 81¢·primm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$17.8K
tracked
$20.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Virginia · $15.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 68 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Syracuse" if Syracuse win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Virginia" if Virginia win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Syracuse and Virginia, scheduled for October 10 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Syracuse" if Syracuse win the game. This market will resolve to "Virginia" if Virginia win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Syracuse; negative values favor Virginia. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSyracuse · $0
6hVirginia · $17.8K
24hVirginia · $17.8K

Syracuse price VWAP

Volume-weighted Syracuse price. Virginia fills are converted to the complementary Syracuse probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current18.5¢
VWAP 24h19.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d19.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Syracuse price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$20.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVirginia$16.9K@ 81.0¢
primm0xd38b…5029
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

primmVirginia$16.9K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.