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Spread: Bills (-5.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: RaidersLiquidity: $219.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $339.5KEvent: Bills vs. Raiders
0.0¢
Bills payout
100.0¢
Raiders payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:44 trades$141.2K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1211 min agoofficial metadata 1185 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Raiders · $6.0K net·7 wallets·$9.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRaiders$53.0K@ 53¢·sinasinner

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Raiders. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-18 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Raiders, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 20h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 20h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
TAIWANNUMBERONE5 linked markets · $134.8K gross
sinasinner2 linked markets · $62.6K gross
ethanaz2 linked markets · $51.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Raiders23h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 48.0¢24h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Raiders@ 53.0¢24h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -10.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Raiders UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $19.5K → $56 · 12s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bills; negative values favor Raiders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBills · $3.2K
6hRaiders · $16.1K
24hRaiders · $16.0K

Bills price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bills price. Raiders fills are converted to the complementary Bills probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h46.3¢▼ below by 46.3pp
VWAP 7d46.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bills price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$59
60¢
$1.5K
55¢
$55
50¢
$164
45¢
$133.2K
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$1.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$3.4K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBills$52.2K@ 48.0¢
Electricy0x7011…c6da
🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYRaiders$10.0K@ 53.0¢
Johnny2d50xd2d4…373b
🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYRaiders$53.0K@ 53.0¢
sinasinner0x8a26…73c3
🐋—about 24 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

sinasinnerRaiders$53.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
ElectricyBills$52.2K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
Johnny2d5Raiders$10.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.