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Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $6.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $158.4KEvent: Bahrain Grand Prix: Driver Winner
97.5¢
YES
2.5¢
NO
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution22Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:148 trades$25.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.6K net·4 wallets·$1.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$11.2K@ 56¢·tyutgbhnm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$822
6h
+$8.6K
tracked
$25.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
Outcome meaning

•If the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Oct 11, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Read full resolution rules

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix, scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Oct 11, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aHjCz2 linked markets · $138 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.8pp · near-book depth $2.1K → $6.8K · 44s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $822
6hYES · $8.6K
24hYES · $12.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.5¢
VWAP 24h58.3¢▲ above by 39.2pp
VWAP 7d57.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$90
90¢
$1.0K
85¢
$110
80¢
$29
75¢
$31
70¢
$28
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$5.6K
55¢
$12.3K
50¢
$3.4K
45¢
$2.7K
40¢
$1.1K
35¢
$27
30¢
$85
25¢
$60
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$11.2K@ 56.0¢
tyutgbhnm0x5ad7…ae48
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tyutgbhnmYes$11.2K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.