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Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs ShindeN (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $64.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $143.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
37.5¢
Legacy
62.5¢
ShindeN
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$85.2K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 60%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYShindeN$16.2K@ 54¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

ShindeN pressure: $31.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$31.6K
6h
−$36.3K
tracked
$85.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: Legacy · $21.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 59

Since latest large flow: +9.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 9.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from ShindeN or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy wins 2 or more maps than ShindeN in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "ShindeN".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between ShindeN and Legacy in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy wins 2 or more maps than ShindeN in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "ShindeN". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 4, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $84.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY ShindeN@ 54.0¢26m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Legacy@ 47.0¢32m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Legacy; negative values favor ShindeN. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hShindeN · $31.6K
6hShindeN · $36.3K
24hShindeN · $38.5K

Legacy price VWAP

Volume-weighted Legacy price. ShindeN fills are converted to the complementary Legacy probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.5¢
VWAP 24h47.0¢▼ below by 9.5pp
VWAP 7d47.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Legacy price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$85.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYShindeN$16.2K@ 54.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYShindeN$10.4K@ 53.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYShindeN$13.6K@ 52.0¢
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111ShindeN$43.8K
BUY VWAP 53.7¢·6 fills
0x29b5…cc6cLegacy$21.1K
BUY VWAP 47.6¢·7 fills
lllllllIlllShindeN$13.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.