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Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller

Sports→Settlement: Alexandre MullerLiquidity: $97.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $76.5KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller
0.1¢
Rio Noguchi payout
100.0¢
Alexandre Muller payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:9 trades$18.9K trackedsource coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 72 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexandre Muller$7.5K@ 67¢·0x2ce8…4527

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alexandre Muller. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-12 08:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rio Noguchi and Alexandre Muller in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rio Noguchi' if Rio Noguchi advances against Alexandre Muller. This market will resolve to 'Alexandre Muller' if Alexandre Muller advances against Rio Noguchi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 1h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 1h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Rio Noguchi; negative values favor Alexandre Muller. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRio Noguchi · $8.4K
6hRio Noguchi · $7.6K
24hRio Noguchi · $52

Rio Noguchi price VWAP

Volume-weighted Rio Noguchi price. Alexandre Muller fills are converted to the complementary Rio Noguchi probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.5¢▼ below by 20.4pp
VWAP 7d20.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Rio Noguchi price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$7.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$8.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.